A strong, loose aggressive regular could three bet here with a decent variety of hands. Aces, to be sure, but also strong or possibly strong and weak kings as well as rundowns or double suited double pair hands. Getting 2:1 to see the flop and holding a very strong hand folding is out of the question. Assuming that my opponent is three betting the top 10% of hands (probably he is reraising pre more than that actually) propokertools.com in forms me that I will have 46% equity against that range.
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AdJcTc8d | 46.36% | 269,021 | 18,272 |
| 10% | 53.64% | 312,707 | 18,272 |
Against a much looser range I am actually the favourite :
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AdJcTc8d | 51.63% | 298,332 | 22,890 |
| 25% | 48.37% | 278,778 | 22,890 |
Of course this refers to all in equity and our concern is really more what is going to happen on the flop, but getting 2:1, having position and being probably not much of a dog to the hands he could be raising me with calling is almost certainly profitable. Four betting (reraising again) might be reasonable too.
The flop came down Td9c5s and my opponent bet $12 into the $16 pot.
You can see from this simulation that this is a very nice flop for my hand :
His holding was JdQh9sJh, a great hand to reraise against a presumably loose open (even out of position) and actually a slight favourite against my holding. The board ran out Js and Kd, giving my opponent a king high straight and I quickly left the game. It's important to avoid strong, aggressive, attacking players and I will usually just quit a table as soon as one of them shows up.
board: Td9c5s
| Hand | Equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AdJcTc8d | 58.04% | 6,039,295 | 369,527 |
| 10% | 41.96% | 4,314,318 | 369,527 |
I've caught up and then some. And if you think about the sort of hands that my opponent might be three betting you see why. I can now make two pair or trips, have 8 outs to a straight, and both runner runner flush draws. I also have a pair of tens, which is not inconsiderable, for example my opponent has something like AKQJ which also flopped very well, but would lose to me if it goes brick brick.
So after my opponent bets $12, with exactly $80 behind, and assuming I now raise, he will be getting exactly 1.5:1 to stack off. There is already $16 in the pot, so I match his $12 with my $12, $24, and there is $40 in the pot with $80 left to be bet. So he is getting 1.5:1 to stack off. If I can get him to fold in this situation with >40% equity, this is a real coup; I thought that might happen, and I even if it won't I'm almost certainly pushing an equity edge here, which is enough, so I went ahead and made a pot sized raise. Despite the components of my hand, top pair and an open-ended straight draw not being that strong on their own, in combination along with the fact that my opponent is somewhat less likely to have smashed this flop given that he reraised pre, makes this a fairly strong situation. My opponent quickly went all in and I if course called.
So after my opponent bets $12, with exactly $80 behind, and assuming I now raise, he will be getting exactly 1.5:1 to stack off. There is already $16 in the pot, so I match his $12 with my $12, $24, and there is $40 in the pot with $80 left to be bet. So he is getting 1.5:1 to stack off. If I can get him to fold in this situation with >40% equity, this is a real coup; I thought that might happen, and I even if it won't I'm almost certainly pushing an equity edge here, which is enough, so I went ahead and made a pot sized raise. Despite the components of my hand, top pair and an open-ended straight draw not being that strong on their own, in combination along with the fact that my opponent is somewhat less likely to have smashed this flop given that he reraised pre, makes this a fairly strong situation. My opponent quickly went all in and I if course called.
His holding was JdQh9sJh, a great hand to reraise against a presumably loose open (even out of position) and actually a slight favourite against my holding. The board ran out Js and Kd, giving my opponent a king high straight and I quickly left the game. It's important to avoid strong, aggressive, attacking players and I will usually just quit a table as soon as one of them shows up.